Everyone Said AI Would Eat Biology. Biology Is Eating AI.

Everyone said AI would eat biology. A decade later, AI is the one getting indigestion.

Even with the massive resurgence of hype around generative AI, the industry is at risk of making the exact same mistakes.

I say this having lived the first cycle from the inside - as an early investor in Exscientia, Insitro, Genesis, BioAge, and Aria Pharmaceuticals (twoXAR), and alongside my Averin partner David Berry, who was Founder and CEO of Valo Health.

We saw firsthand what separated the true builders from the hype.

Here is why the first wave stalled - and what the new GenAI wave must learn to avoid the same fate:

𝟏. 𝐀𝐈 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐝 𝐮𝐩 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐜𝐤, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐛𝐢𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲 𝐩𝐮𝐬𝐡𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐞𝐥𝐬𝐞. Some teams were brilliant at chemistry but picked the wrong targets. Others nailed the biology but bottlenecked on the chemistry. AI didn't help in clinical execution.

𝐀𝐈 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐬. 𝐈𝐭 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐞 𝐛𝐨𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐤𝐬. That requires deep therapeutic judgment.

𝟐. 𝐄𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐲 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐬. Many first programs weren’t chosen because they were right. They were chosen because they were fast:

• A founder’s academic comfort zone • "Low hanging fruit" biology • The need for fast readouts to fundraise.

As platforms matured, the assets didn’t match the advantage. The market judged the platforms on those rushed assets.

𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐆𝐞𝐧𝐀𝐈, 𝐢𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 "𝐰𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠" 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐟𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫.

𝟑. 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 > 𝐀𝐥𝐠𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐦𝐬 Models don’t decide which biology matters. Humans do. The teams that won the first wave - and the ones who will win this resurgence - are those who pair AI depth with the ability to pick the right targets and development paths.

AI finds signal. Strategy turns it into a drug.

𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭’𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐧.

Not for "push button, get drug" platforms, but for teams that combine generative models with real biological judgment and operational excellence.

That’s exactly what we’re backing at Averin Capital.

What do you think the next great AI-driven biotech company will look like?