AI Is Two-Thirds of Venture. Healthcare Is the Uncorrelated Bet.

Last year, AI took two of every three venture dollars in America. Biotech got eight cents on the dollar, the lowest share on record.

So the same bet now hides inside almost everything you own. Ten companies are about 36% of the S&P 500. AI is two-thirds of venture. The index built to diversify you, and the venture book LPs use to escape it, have become the same trade.

The sharpest LPs I talk to have noticed. They aren't asking what I think about AI; they already hold plenty, public and private. They're asking the opposite question: what isn't correlated to it?

Healthcare is one of the few honest answers, and not only drugs. Whether a therapy works is settled by biology and a clinical trial, not GPU supply. Whether a care model or a clinical robot earns its keep turns on cost and outcomes, not the next benchmark. Demand is set by demographics and disease, which don't care what the Nasdaq did this quarter. Its share of venture capital just hit a record low, even as the exits start to return. AI gets the funding and the headlines. Healthcare today is at a discount.

And don't mistake uncorrelated for small. The GLP-1s alone are heading toward $200 billion a year by 2030 and made Eli Lilly the most valuable healthcare company on earth. The exits match the scale: at least five healthcare companies have sold for $5 billion or more in the past year, led by AbbVie's $10.9 billion for Apogee yesterday and Pfizer's $10 billion for obesity upstart Metsera. The IPO class is keeping pace: digital-health names like Hinge Health now trade above $5 billion. These outcomes aren't a consolation prize for diversifying. They're among the largest in the economy.

None of this is anti-AI. We back it at Averin, aimed at human health, from drug discovery to how care is delivered to robotics in the clinic. But the AI that actually diversifies a portfolio is the kind whose payoff turns on outcomes, not the compute cycle.

The most crowded trade in history is sitting in the part of your portfolio you thought was diversified. The uncorrelated one isn't dying, it's just unfashionable. And how much capital chases a sector has rarely predicted what it returns.